Black swan events range from natural disasters, such as earthquakes and hurricanes, to man-made events, such as economic collapses, terrorist attacks, wars, etc. 

Black swan events also vary in terms of severity. While some events may cause a mild slowdown in the markets, others can threaten the integrity of the entire global financial system. 

Natural Disasters

Natural disasters, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, and volcanic eruptions are some of the most devastating events on earth. 

Aside from the enormous human cost, natural disasters also affect financial markets in an adverse fashion. 

There are numerous examples of natural disasters affecting the markets, or a specific sector of the economy. Some notable examples of natural disasters that caused market downturns include:

• The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland in 2010 disrupted European air travel and had economic consequences, causing airline stocks to lose some market value 
• Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, disrupted economic activity in affected regions, causing damage to infrastructure and businesses, which affected the stocks of insurance companies 
• The California wildfires of 2023 have also affected the stocks of insurance companies 

It is important to consider that even major natural disasters have not managed to cause a worldwide economic recession. Most financial crises are caused by man-made factors, such as asset bubbles and health crises. 

Armed Conflicts 

Armed conflicts can render the economy of the affected countries dysfunctional. For example, the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the subsequent western sanctions have caused many Russian stocks to pause trading.

The MOEX Russia Index, which is the benchmark index of the Russian stock market, fell from 4,558 in October 2021 to 1,853 in October 2023. 

Armed conflicts shift national economies into “war economics”, where military companies receive massive funding and try to carry the economy through the conflict by creating new jobs in the industry, however, this is typically not enough to avoid a recession. 

Pandemics

Pandemics, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, have major adverse effects on economic performance. Due to the lockdown measures around the world, financial markets globally suffered in 2020. 

The S&P 500 fell from 3,380 on 14 February 2020 to 2,304 on 20 March 2020. 

While the drop was fast and steep, the markets quickly recovered and marked a bull run that lasted well past 2021. 

However, pandemics also cause certain industries to experience massive growth - primarily the biotech and pharmaceutical industries, as they work to develop a cure/vaccine. Whichever company wins the “race” will be able to greatly increase its revenues. 

• A black swan event refers to a sudden drop in market performance that is caused by outside factors
• Black swan events can range from natural disaster, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, to pandemics, armed conflicts, etc
• The global markets have seen numerous black swan events over the years, but most of them affect their local markets more heavily 
• The Covid-19 pandemic has been the only recent black swan event that affected financial performance all over the world, due to strict lockdown measures